Free tool
Watch Deal Analyzer
Pick one of 46 references from Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Omega, Tudor, and Cartier, or enter your own numbers. Get a Deal Score, a fair value estimate, your Bottom Cash Value, the Dial Report Score, a negotiation ladder, the true cost of ownership, and the market context, in seconds.
Costs and assumptions
How to use it well
The numbers are only as good as the sold prices you give it
Use sold prices, not listings. Asking prices sit above what watches actually sell for. Completed sales from auction results, dealer sold archives, and price trackers give an honest market value. Our guide to retail, asking, and sold prices explains why.
Match like with like. Same reference, similar condition, similar completeness. If your comparables are full sets and the watch in front of you is not, tell the tool, and it applies a documented discount. See what box and papers are worth.
Run more than one scenario. Nobody knows next year’s prices. Move the market change slider from negative to positive and see how much of your outcome depends on it. If the deal only works when prices rise, it is a bet, not a purchase.
Check the watch, not just the price. A fair price for a compromised watch is not a fair deal. Work through our pre-owned due diligence checklist first.
Questions
Frequently asked questions
How does the Deal Analyzer estimate fair value?
If you paste recent sold prices for the exact reference, fair value is their median, adjusted when those sales were full sets and your watch is not. Without sold prices, it uses the midpoint of the published 2026 market range for the reference, then adjusts for completeness and condition. You can also type your own estimate.
What is the Bottom Cash Value?
The Bottom Cash Value is what a dealer would likely pay you for the watch today. It is fair value multiplied by a dealer buy rate, which rises with liquidity from about 70% for thin markets to 85% for the most liquid references. The gap between the asking price and the Bottom Cash Value is the money you really put at risk on day one.
What is the Dial Report Score?
A 0 to 100 score for value retention built on five weighted forces: brand strength 30%, scarcity and supply 25%, desirability 20%, condition and papers 15%, and liquidity 10%. Scores of 85 and above are blue-chip, 70 to 84 solid, 55 to 69 mixed, 40 to 54 weak, and under 40 poor. The full method is in The Watch Investment System.
How is the Deal Score different from the Dial Report Score?
The Dial Report Score rates the watch. The Deal Score rates this specific deal: 60% comes from the asking price against fair value and 40% from the Dial Report Score. A great watch at a bad price still gets a weak Deal Score.
Where does the reference data come from?
US retail prices come from published 2026 retail lists. Market ranges come from WatchScanning price guides and our own research, and brand sell-through and one-year price changes come from the Loupe Q1 2026 Market Report. Every reference lists its sources inside the tool under Data and method.
Does the tool store my data?
No account is needed and nothing is sent to us. Your last analysis and your shortlist are saved in your own browser only. Share links put the inputs in the link itself. Currency rates load from a public exchange-rate service.
Is this financial advice?
No. The Deal Analyzer is an educational tool. Market data moves constantly and sources disagree, so treat every result as an estimate and check the watch itself, the seller, and current sold prices before you buy.