The watch market after the bubble: what 2022 to 2026 actually taught buyers

What actually happened

Between 2020 and early 2022 the pre-owned watch market behaved like nothing most people in the trade had seen. Low interest rates, stimulus money, time at home, and a wave of first-time buyers all arrived at once. Demand for a small group of steel sport models from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet ran far ahead of supply.

The numbers were extreme. WatchCharts data shows the average Rolex resale price climbing from roughly $7,185 before the pandemic to a peak of about $17,206 in March 2022. Waiting lists at authorised dealers stretched for years, which pushed buyers into the secondary market and pushed secondary prices far above retail.

How far it fell

Then the conditions reversed. Interest rates rose through 2022, speculative assets sold off, and the buyers who had been paying any price stepped back. By October 2023 the WatchCharts Overall Market Index had fallen more than 35% from its March 2022 peak.

The recovery has been slow. Chrono24’s ChronoPulse index, which tracks 14 brands and more than 140 models, touched its low on 12 October 2024 and was still 23.9% below its March 2022 high at the end of the first quarter of 2025.

In plain terms, someone who bought at the top paid a price the market has still not returned to, four years later.

Where the market stands in 2026

The picture in 2026 is a recovery, not a new boom. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index was up about 8.2% over the twelve months to February 2026, and 21 of 27 tracked brands with average prices above $3,000 showed positive six-month performance.

Brand results varied widely. Over the same period Patek Philippe secondary prices rose about 16.2%, Rolex about 7.9%, and Audemars Piguet about 3.4%, while Breitling slipped about 1.1%. Those are averages, and averages hide the gap between references that are in demand and those that are not.

Secondary price change, twelve months to February 2026

WatchCharts indices. Gold bars rose, blue bars fell.

RoseFell

Source: WatchCharts, via Hilco Global (2026).

Retail prices kept climbing at the same time. Rolex raised prices on gold references by roughly 7 to 9% in January 2026, then by a further 5% on gold and 2.5% on two-tone models in June, while leaving steel prices unchanged. For some references that narrows, or closes, the gap between buying new and buying pre-owned.

Three lessons that still apply

1. Entry price is most of the return

The same watch was a sensible buy in 2019 and a painful one in March 2022. Nothing about the watch changed, only the price. Before you buy, look at where the exact reference has traded over several years, not several weeks.

2. The reference matters more than the brand

Performance was uneven in the boom and it is uneven again in the recovery. A handful of references carry the brand averages, while many others quietly lose value. Buying a famous name is not a strategy. Buying a specific reference at a fair price can be.

3. Liquidity disappears when you need it most

In a rising market everything sells. In a falling one, buyers vanish and dealers protect their margins. Hilco Global notes a dealer might pay around 80 to 85 cents on the dollar even for a longtime client’s trade-in. Assume that discount exists before you buy, not after.

The whole cycle in one table

It helps to see the boom, the correction, and the recovery side by side. Every figure below comes from the sources cited in this article.

Period	What happened	Key figure
Before 2020	Stable market, steel sports models scarce but available with patience	Average Rolex resale price about $7,185 (WatchCharts)
2020 to 2021	Low rates, stimulus, new buyers, waiting lists of years	Secondary prices pulled far above retail
March 2022	Peak of the market	Average Rolex resale price about $17,206, 2.4 times pre-pandemic
2022 to 2023	Rates rise, speculative assets sell off, buyers step back	WatchCharts Overall Market Index down more than 35% by October 2023
12 October 2024	ChronoPulse index touches its low	Chrono24 index tracking 14 brands and 140+ models
End of Q1 2025	Slow recovery	ChronoPulse still 23.9% below its March 2022 high
Twelve months to February 2026	Broad but modest recovery	WatchCharts Overall Market Index up about 8.2%
January and June 2026	Rolex raises gold and two-tone retail prices, steel unchanged	Gold up roughly 7 to 9%, then a further 5%

Read down the right-hand column and the shape is clear. Prices more than doubled in two years, lost over a third in eighteen months, and have recovered only a fraction of that since. Four years after the peak, a buyer who paid top-of-market money is still waiting to get it back.

What a peak buyer actually lost: a worked example

Indices are abstract. Here is what the cycle looks like for one person. Assume a buyer paid the average Rolex resale price at the March 2022 peak, about $17,206, and that their watch then followed the broad market. The numbers are an illustration, built from the index moves above, not a record of any specific sale.

Step	Value	How we got there
Price paid, March 2022	$17,206	Average Rolex resale price at the peak (WatchCharts)
Market value, October 2023	About $11,180	Peak value less 35%, the index fall to that date
What a dealer would pay	About $8,950 to $9,500	80 to 85% of market value (Hilco Global)
Paper loss if sold to a dealer	About $7,700 to $8,250	Price paid less dealer offer
Loss as a share of the price	About 45 to 48%	Before insurance, servicing, or the cost of the money

Two things stand out. First, the dealer discount on top of the market fall almost doubled the damage. Second, nothing was wrong with the watch. The entire loss came from the entry price and the exit route. That is why we build every analysis around the price you pay and the price you could realistically get back, which we call the Bottom Cash Value.

The lesson in one line. In a correction, you do not lose the market fall. You lose the market fall plus the dealer discount, which is why buying close to fair value matters more than picking the right brand.

Why some references held up and others did not

Brand averages hide a wide spread. The references that recovered best since the trough tend to share a few traits, and the ones that kept falling tend to lack them.

• Rising retail prices put a floor under the market. When the manufacturer raises list prices, the gap between new and pre-owned narrows, and pre-owned prices find support. Rolex raised gold prices twice in 2026 while holding steel, which is one reason gold pre-owned prices have been better supported than they were in 2023.
• Liquidity cushions a fall. Brands whose watches sell quickly are easier to price and easier to exit. In the first quarter of 2026, Loupe recorded sell-through rates of 89.4% for Tudor, 76.7% for Cartier, and 69.6% for Omega, against 43.4% for Rolex, 36.9% for Patek Philippe, and 32.5% for Audemars Piguet. Our liquidity league table explains what those numbers mean.
• Hype is the first thing to go. The references with the largest premiums over retail in 2022 had the furthest to fall. Our analysis of the Nautilus 5711 shows how far even the most famous steel watch has come down from its peak.
• Discontinuation helps, but only with demand. A discontinued reference with a real following can hold value. A discontinued reference nobody asked for simply becomes an old model.

Signals that the cycle is turning

Nobody can time the market reliably, and we do not try. But the boom and the correction both left clear tracks. If you want to know whether conditions are getting frothy again, watch these:

Signal	Healthy market	Overheating market
Premiums over retail	Most references near or below retail	Steel sports models far above retail across brands
Authorised dealer waiting lists	Short, or watches available on request	Lists of years and purchase history requirements
Sell-through and days on market	Stable	Everything sells instantly, at any price
Retail price increases	In line with costs and currency	Frequent increases that the secondary market still outpaces
Swiss export values	Steady or modest growth	Rapid growth driven by a few markets
Buyer behaviour	Buying to wear	Buying to flip, with talk of returns

For the macro side, our Swiss watch exports analysis tracks the industry data, and our explainer on why watch price indices disagree shows how to read the indices without being misled by them.

How to buy in a recovering market

A recovering market is a good market for careful buyers. Supply is healthy, sellers are realistic, and prices are anchored to recent sales rather than hope. The rules that would have protected buyers in 2022 still apply:

• Anchor to sold prices for the exact reference. Not the brand index, and not asking prices. Our guide to retail, asking, and sold prices explains the difference.
• Know your walk-away price before you talk to the seller. Decide the most you will pay, and do not move it in the moment.
• Price your exit on day one. Work out what a dealer would pay you tomorrow. The gap between that figure and your price is your real risk.
• Prefer references trading near retail. They have less hype to unwind, and a rising retail price can support them.
• Plan to hold. Transaction costs and servicing mean short holding periods rarely work. Our article on the true cost of owning a luxury watch puts numbers on it.

What this means if you are buying now

Our read, and it is an opinion: 2026 is a reasonable time to buy a watch you want to own, at a fair price, with your eyes open. It is not a time to buy anything on the expectation that it will rise. Do the homework on the exact reference, compare completed sales rather than asking prices, and decide what you could live with if you had to sell next year.

Frequently asked questions

Is the luxury watch bubble over?

The bubble ended in 2022. Prices fell more than 35% by October 2023, bottomed in late 2024, and have recovered modestly since, with the WatchCharts Overall Market Index up about 8.2% over the twelve months to February 2026. That is a recovery, not a new boom.

Will watch prices return to their 2022 peak?

Nobody knows. The peak was driven by unusual conditions, including near-zero interest rates and stimulus money, that are unlikely to repeat in the same form. Buying on the expectation of a return to peak prices is speculation.

What caused the watch market crash?

Rising interest rates, a broad sell-off in speculative assets, and buyers stepping back after paying prices far above retail. As demand fell, dealers protected their margins and prices adjusted quickly.

Which brands recovered best?

Over the twelve months to February 2026, Patek Philippe secondary prices rose about 16.2%, Rolex about 7.9%, and Audemars Piguet about 3.4%, while Breitling slipped about 1.1%. Individual references varied far more than these averages.

Is 2026 a good time to buy a luxury watch?

It can be a good time to buy a watch you want to own, at a fair price. It is not a good time to buy anything because you expect it to rise. Check sold prices, know your walk-away price, and plan to hold.

Sources

• Hilco Global, Collateral In Question: A Mid-2026 Assessment of the Luxury Watch Segment for Asset-Based Lenders (2026), citing WatchCharts data.
• Axios, Watch prices are down (October 2023), citing the WatchCharts Overall Market Index.
• Insight Luxury, ChronoPulse report on the pre-owned market, Q1 2025 (May 2025).
• Loupe, Q1 2026 Market Report (brand sell-through rates).

Figures are in US dollars as reported by the sources. This article is educational and is not financial advice.