Swiss watch exports in 2025: what CHF 25.6 billion tells buyers
Exports fell for a second year, volumes fell faster than value, and Rolex now takes about a third of the market. Here is what the 2025 numbers mean for anyone buying a watch.
Quick answer
Swiss watch exports fell 1.7% in 2025 to CHF 25.55 billion, the second annual decline in a row, while the number of watches exported fell faster, by 4.8% to about 14.6 million. The industry is shipping fewer, more expensive watches. China and Hong Kong were the main drag, US exports were disrupted by tariffs, and the largest brands kept gaining share.
Key takeaways
- Swiss watch exports fell 1.7% in 2025 to CHF 25.55 billion, their second straight year of decline and 4.5% below 2023.
- Volumes fell faster than value. Exports were down 4.8% to about 14.6 million watches, so the average watch shipped became more expensive.
- China (down 12%) and Hong Kong (down 6.5%) dragged the total. The Middle East and India grew.
- The industry keeps concentrating. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimate Rolex alone takes about a third of the Swiss market by value, more than three times its nearest rival.
In this article
Every January the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry publishes the year’s export figures, and every January most coverage stops at the headline. The headline for 2025 was a mild contraction. The detail underneath is more useful, because it shows where demand is shifting, which brands are pulling away, and what that means for prices on both the primary and secondary markets.
Three years of decline, in context
| Year | Exports (CHF millions) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26,748 | |
| 2024 | 25,993 | −2.8% |
| 2025 | 25,552 | −1.7% |
A 1.7% fall is not a crisis. But it follows a 2.8% fall in 2024, and it came in a year when the United States briefly imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss goods before cutting it to 15%. Exports to the US, roughly 17% of the global total, ended the year almost flat at minus 0.5%, helped by a 19.2% jump in December.
Where demand moved
Swiss watch exports by market, change in 2025
Year-on-year change in export value. Gold bars grew, blue bars shrank.
Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, as reported by Monochrome Watches.
The pattern is clear. Greater China, for years the growth engine of luxury watches, is now the main drag. Saudi Arabia and India grew strongly, and India’s 8.9% rise followed growth of 25.2% the year before. Western Europe was mixed: France and the UK were flat to slightly up, Germany fell 6.8%.
For buyers, the China figures matter because Hong Kong and mainland China were a major source of demand for the most hyped steel sports models during the boom. Weaker demand there is one of the reasons secondary prices for those references have not returned to their 2022 highs.
Fewer watches, more expensive ones
The segment data tells the same story from a different angle. Watches with an export price above CHF 3,000 fell 1.9%. The CHF 500 to 3,000 band was stable. Watches below CHF 500 fell 4.5%. Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimate that watches retailing above CHF 50,000 now make up roughly 37% of export value and nearly 90% of the industry’s growth, while accounting for only a tiny share of units.
Swiss watchmaking is becoming a smaller-volume, higher-value business, built around a shrinking number of very expensive watches.
The winners take most
Estimated 2025 turnover, largest Swiss watch brands
CHF billions, retail value estimates. Cartier shown at the midpoint of the CHF 3.5 to 3.6 billion range.
Source: Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, 2026 Swiss watch industry report, as reported by The Peak.
Rolex’s estimated turnover of about CHF 11 billion is more than three times that of Cartier, the second largest brand. The top four (Rolex, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe) together account for an estimated 47% of Swiss watch industry turnover. Omega, number two only a few years ago, is now fifth.
Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult put the total Swiss primary market at about CHF 49 billion in 2025, down 1.7%. That figure is at retail value, which is why it is roughly twice the export figure, which is measured at export prices.
The average Swiss watch is getting more expensive
Dividing export value by the number of watches gives the average export price per watch. Because value fell less than volume in 2025, that average rose.
| 2024 (derived) | 2025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value | About CHF 26.0 billion | CHF 25.55 billion | −1.7% |
| Watches exported | About 15.3 million | About 14.6 million | −4.8% |
| Average export price per watch | About CHF 1,694 | About CHF 1,750 | About +3.3% |
Export prices are measured at the border, before distribution and retail margins, so the price a customer pays in a boutique is considerably higher. The direction is what matters. Brands are raising prices and shifting their mix towards expensive watches faster than they are losing volume. For buyers, that means retail prices are unlikely to fall, even in a soft market, which in turn supports the pre-owned prices of watches that trade close to retail.
The US tariff shock
The United States is the largest single market for Swiss watches, and 2025 brought an unusual disruption. A 39% US tariff on Swiss goods took effect in early August 2025. Swiss watch exports to the US fell 56% in September and 46.8% in October compared with a year earlier, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry as reported by JCK. Switzerland and the US then agreed to cut the rate to 15%.
Several things follow for buyers. Some brands raised US retail prices to absorb the tariff, and some shipped stock ahead of the deadline, which distorts the monthly export data on both sides. US buyers saw new-watch prices rise at a time when the pre-owned market was flat, which narrows the gap between new and pre-owned. And European buyers should not expect US price increases to be mirrored exactly at home, which is one more reason to compare prices in your own currency and tax regime.
Reading monthly export data. In a year with a tariff deadline, single months can swing by 40% or more as companies bring shipments forward or hold them back. Look at full-year and rolling twelve-month totals before drawing conclusions.
How export data connects to the prices you pay
Export statistics measure what Swiss brands ship to their own subsidiaries and retailers, not what consumers buy. Still, they move the market you buy in through three channels.
- Supply. Lower volumes mean fewer new watches reach authorised dealers. For popular references, that keeps waiting lists alive and supports pre-owned prices.
- Retail pricing. Rising average export prices show brands are pricing up. Higher retail prices put a floor under pre-owned prices for references that trade near retail.
- Regional demand. When a large market such as China weakens, watches that were popular there can see pre-owned prices soften as dealer stock moves to other regions.
If you want the secondary-market side of the story, our liquidity league table and analysis of the market after the bubble pick up where the export data stops.
What it means for buyers
- Expect the strongest brands to keep raising prices. Concentration gives the top names pricing power. Rolex raised prices on gold models twice in 2026 even as overall exports fell.
- Expect pressure below the top tier. Our read, and it is an opinion: brands outside the leading group are competing for a shrinking pool of buyers, which tends to show up as discounting at retail and softer pre-owned prices. That can be good news if you are buying.
- Watch Greater China. Any lasting recovery there would support secondary prices for the references that were most in demand during the boom.
- Do not read exports as sales. These figures measure shipments from Switzerland, not watches bought by consumers. Inventory sitting at retailers shows up here before it is sold.
Method and caveats
Export figures are published by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry and measure the value of watches shipped from Switzerland at export prices. Brand turnover figures are estimates by Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult at retail value. Brands do not publish these numbers themselves, so treat them as informed estimates rather than reported results.
Free tool
Retail prices keep rising. Check whether a pre-owned deal still makes sense against new with the Deal Analyzer, which compares asking price, fair value, and retail.
Open the Deal AnalyzerFrequently asked questions
How much were Swiss watch exports in 2025?
CHF 25.55 billion, down 1.7% from 2024 and 4.5% below 2023. The number of watches exported fell 4.8% to about 14.6 million.
Why did Swiss watch exports fall in 2025?
Mainly weaker demand in China and Hong Kong, which fell 12% and 6.5%, plus disruption to US shipments after a 39% US tariff on Swiss goods took effect in August 2025. The Middle East and India grew.
What is the US tariff on Swiss watches?
A 39% tariff on Swiss goods took effect in early August 2025. Switzerland and the US later agreed to reduce it to 15%, as reported by JCK. Check current rules before importing a watch.
Are Swiss watches getting more expensive?
Yes. The average export price per watch rose about 3.3% in 2025 by our calculation, and brands including Rolex raised retail prices in 2026. Volumes are falling while value holds up.
Which Swiss watch brand is the largest?
Rolex, with estimated 2025 turnover of about CHF 11 billion according to Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult estimates, more than three times Cartier, the second largest brand.
Sources
- Monochrome Watches, Swiss watch exports down 2% to CHF 25 billion in 2025, reporting Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry data.
- The Peak, What the 2026 Morgan Stanley x LuxeConsult Swiss watch industry report means for watch lovers (July 2026).
- Hilco Global, Collateral In Question: A Mid-2026 Assessment of the Luxury Watch Segment for Asset-Based Lenders (2026).
- JCK, Swiss watch tariffs reduced (citing Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry data).
