Rolex Submariner: why it is the default answer, and when it is the wrong one
Steel Submariners trade about 40 to 47% above retail in 2026. The gold model trades 12% below. Here is what makes the Submariner a strong store of value, and when it is the wrong buy.
Quick answer
The steel Rolex Submariner is one of the safest places to put watch money because its market is deep, prices are transparent, and it sells quickly. In 2026 the no-date 124060 retails at $10,050 in the US. It is the wrong buy when you pay far above retail, buy a compromised example, or choose it only because it is the default.
Key takeaways
- The steel Submariner is one of the most liquid luxury watches you can own, and that liquidity is a large part of its value.
- Steel and precious-metal versions behave very differently on the secondary market.
- Paying far above retail for any version erases most of its advantages.
In this article
- Why the Submariner works
- The current line-up in brief
- The 2026 numbers
- The Submariner on the Dial Report Score
- Which Submariner? The three steel references compared
- Steel versus gold: a different asset
- When the Submariner is the wrong buy
- What a Submariner really costs to own
- A Submariner-specific inspection checklist
- Alternatives if the Submariner is not right for you
- How to buy one well
- Frequently asked questions
Ask ten people what luxury watch to buy first and several will say the Submariner. That advice is lazy more often than not, but it is not wrong. Understanding why it works, and where it stops working, is a good lesson in how value retention actually happens.
Why the Submariner works
Rolex launched the Submariner in 1953 and has changed it slowly ever since. The design is recognised everywhere, demand is global, and there is a deep pool of buyers and dealers in every major market. That combination is what you are really paying for. Not rarity, but liquidity.
Hilco Global’s 2026 assessment of the watch market describes steel Rolex sport references as increasingly commodity-like, with a high degree of pricing transparency. For a buyer that is a strength. You can see what the watch sells for, and you can sell it again with reasonable confidence.
The current line-up in brief
The current generation arrived in 2020 with a 41 mm case. In steel there are three core references: the 124060 without a date, the 126610LN with a date and black bezel, and the 126610LV with a date and green bezel. Two-tone and gold versions sit above them in price.
Which one is best is personal. From a value point of view, the steel references are where liquidity is deepest.
The 2026 numbers
In January 2026 the Submariner’s US retail price passed $10,000 for the first time. Loupe lists the 124060 at $10,050, up from $8,950 two years earlier, an increase of about 12%. The date models sit at $10,250 for the black 126610LN and $11,350 for the green 126610LV. The yellow gold 126618LB retails at $48,600.
| Reference | US retail | Secondary market value | Premium or discount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 124060, steel, no date | $10,050 | $14,006 | +39% |
| 126610LN, steel, black bezel | $10,250 | $15,107 | +47% |
| 126610LV, steel, green bezel | $11,350 | $16,401 | +45% |
| 126618LB, yellow gold | $48,600 | $42,618 | −12% |
Submariner: secondary value versus retail, 2026
Premium (gold) or discount (blue) of secondary market value over US retail.
Source: Loupe, 2026. Calculations by The Dial Report.
This is the clearest illustration we know of the gap between steel and gold. Every steel Submariner trades at roughly 40 to 47% above retail. The gold model, more than four times the price new, trades about 12% below it. Buy a steel Submariner at retail and you are, on paper, ahead the day you leave the shop. Buy the gold one at retail and you are around $6,000 behind.
The Submariner on the Dial Report Score
We rate value retention with five weighted forces, the same method used in The Watch Investment System and the Deal Analyzer. Here is how the steel no-date 124060 scores, assuming a full set in excellent condition.
| Force | Weight | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brand strength | 30% | 9/10 | The deepest and most liquid brand in the secondary market |
| Scarcity and supply | 25% | 7/10 | Produced in large numbers, but still hard to buy new at retail |
| Desirability | 20% | 9/10 | A design that has stayed relevant since the 1950s |
| Condition and papers | 15% | 9/10 | Assumes a full set in excellent condition |
| Liquidity | 10% | 10/10 | One of the easiest watches in the world to sell |
A score of 86 puts the steel Submariner in the blue-chip band. That does not mean every Submariner is a good deal. The score rates the watch. Whether a specific purchase makes sense depends on the price, which is why the Deal Analyzer combines the score with price into a separate Deal Score.
Which Submariner? The three steel references compared
| 124060 | 126610LN | 126610LV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Date | No | Yes | Yes |
| Bezel | Black | Black | Green |
| Movement | Calibre 3230 | Calibre 3235 | Calibre 3235 |
| US retail, 2026 | $10,050 | $10,250 | $11,350 |
| Who it suits | Purists, symmetrical dial | Everyday practicality | Buyers who want colour and more presence |
All three share the 41 mm case introduced in 2020, waterproofing to 300 metres, and a power reserve of around 70 hours, according to Rolex. The no-date is the cleanest design and usually the cheapest. The date is the most practical. The green-bezel 126610LV costs more at retail and attracts a different, more fashion-led buyer, which can make its secondary price more volatile.
Steel versus gold: a different asset
Precious-metal Submariners cost much more at retail, and the secondary market tends to return a smaller share of that price than it does for steel. Hilco notes gold references are harder to value with confidence. Rolex’s 2026 price increases also landed on gold and two-tone models, roughly 7 to 9% on gold in January and another 5% in June, while steel retail prices were left unchanged.
If you want gold because you love gold, buy it. Just do not buy it expecting it to behave like steel.
When the Submariner is the wrong buy
- When you are paying a large premium over retail. A steel model bought at retail does not need to rise to be a sound purchase. Bought far above retail, it does.
- When it is not the watch you want. The most sensible watch you do not enjoy wearing is still a bad purchase.
- When the example is compromised. Replaced parts, heavy polishing, or missing papers reduce what you can get back, often by more than the discount you were offered.
- When you may need the money back soon. Even the most liquid watch carries a dealer spread.
What a Submariner really costs to own
The purchase price is only the start. Here is an illustration of ten years of ownership for a steel Submariner bought at €11,000, with no change in market value. The service cost and interval are assumptions based on typical Rolex figures, and insurance is assumed at 1.5% of value a year.
| Cost over ten years | Amount | Assumption |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price | €11,000 | Middle of the market for a full set |
| Insurance | About €1,650 | 1.5% of €11,000 a year |
| One full service | About €750 | One service in ten years, in line with the roughly ten-year intervals reported by aBlogtoWatch |
| Selling cost if sold privately | About €715 | 6.5% marketplace seller fee, our assumption |
| Total cost, before any price change | About €3,115 | Roughly €310 a year to wear the watch |
About €310 a year is the cost of wearing one of the best-known watches in the world, if the market stays flat. If prices rise, that cost shrinks. If you pay too much at the start, it grows quickly. Our full guide to the true cost of owning a luxury watch explains each line.
A Submariner-specific inspection checklist
- Serial and papers. Check that the serial engraved on the watch matches the guarantee card exactly.
- Bezel. The ceramic insert should be free of chips, and the bezel should click firmly through its 120 positions in one direction only.
- Bracelet and clasp. Check for stretch between links, and that the Glidelock extension system works smoothly.
- Polishing. Look at the lugs and case sides. Heavy polishing softens sharp edges and reduces value.
- Crystal and date. On date models, the magnifier over the date should be clear and correctly aligned.
- Timekeeping. Ask how the watch is running and when it was last serviced, and get the service paperwork if there is any.
Our complete pre-owned due diligence checklist covers the seller, payment, and paperwork as well as the watch.
Alternatives if the Submariner is not right for you
If the premium, the waiting list, or simply the ubiquity of the Submariner puts you off, several dive watches offer strong value retention at a lower entry price. They score lower on brand strength, but they are often easier to buy close to fair value, and their markets can be even more liquid.
| Watch | Why consider it | Brand sell-through, Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Tudor Black Bay 58 | Vintage-inspired proportions, Rolex group engineering, lower price | 89.4% (Tudor) |
| Tudor Pelagos | Titanium tool watch with a loyal following | 89.4% (Tudor) |
| Omega Seamaster Diver 300M | Strong design heritage and wide availability | 69.6% (Omega) |
| Rolex Submariner (for comparison) | The benchmark dive watch | 43.4% (Rolex) |
A higher sell-through rate does not mean a better investment. Rolex sells through a lower share of listings partly because so many Rolex watches are listed. What it does show is that a Tudor or an Omega is not a hard watch to sell. Our Cartier and Tudor analysis and Omega secondary market guide go deeper.
How to buy one well
- Check completed sold prices for the exact reference, not the Submariner family as a whole.
- Prefer complete sets with matching serial numbers, and verify them.
- Inspect the case. Crisp edges and an original bezel matter for resale.
- Know what a dealer would pay before you commit, so you know your downside.
The Submariner is the default answer because it is rarely a disaster. Bought at the right price, it is one of the few watches where enjoying what you own and protecting what you paid point in the same direction.
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Check any Submariner deal in seconds. Pick the reference, enter the asking price, and see fair value, your Bottom Cash Value, the Dial Report Score, and ten-year ownership costs.
Open the Deal AnalyzerFrequently asked questions
How much is a Rolex Submariner in 2026?
US retail prices in January 2026 are $10,050 for the no-date 124060, $10,250 for the black-bezel date 126610LN, and $11,350 for the green-bezel 126610LV, according to Loupe. Pre-owned steel models typically trade above retail.
Does the Rolex Submariner hold its value?
Steel Submariners have historically held value better than most watches because the market for them is deep and liquid. Whether your watch holds value depends mainly on the price you pay and its condition and completeness.
Which Submariner is the best investment?
We do not recommend buying any watch as an investment. From a value-retention point of view, the steel references have the deepest market. Precious-metal versions usually return a smaller share of their retail price.
Is the Submariner no-date or date better?
It is personal. The no-date is the purist choice and usually cheaper. The date is more practical. The green-bezel version costs more and attracts a more fashion-led buyer.
How often does a Submariner need servicing?
Rolex has moved to long service intervals of around ten years for current watches, as reported by aBlogtoWatch, and a full service typically costs several hundred euros. Check with an Official Rolex Jeweler for current prices in your country.
Sources
- Loupe, Submariner breaks $10,000 retail (2026).
- Hilco Global, Collateral In Question: A Mid-2026 Assessment of the Luxury Watch Segment for Asset-Based Lenders (2026).
- Rolex, Submariner collection.
- aBlogtoWatch, Rolex five-year warranty and ten-year service intervals
- Loupe, Q1 2026 Market Report (brand sell-through).
This article is educational and is not financial advice.
